The caption ‘Nuclear Deal’ may remind a common man of the World War II, of Hiroshima-Nagasaki, of August 6, 1945 and of J. H. Oppenheimer, the inventor of the nuclear bomb. With the passage of time, it is important to educate similar minds to look at the end of the tunnel, to open the eyes to ‘the Light’. The Indo-US Nuclear Deal represents hope. A hope to meet the ever-increasing energy needs of the country, a hope to see electricity in every town and village in India and a hope to see the country gain economic, political and technological growth.
The Indo-US Nuclear Deal has more to it than what meets the eye. Those opposing this Deal predominantly think that either India may develop nuclear weapons with the help of the United States or India may lose its integrity and sovereignty and eventually be a puppet at the hands of a country which had earlier marred Afghanistan and Iraq. Well, to their surprise neither of the stated arguments is true. Firstly, India requires nuclear fuel and technology for the civil purposes and not to develop weapons of mass destruction. Secondly, India is simply importing fuel and technology to gain economic and political supremacy in the longer run and not to kneel down to the nation which has lost its tag of being ‘the Most Powerful Nation of the World’ after the Sub-prime Crisis and the global financial earthquakes.
From a birds eye view, India is a land with more than 1.1 billion people requiring food, water and energy to survive. An Infrastructural Advisory Study conducted by FICCI and CRISIL concluded that there is already a deficit of power supply of about 8% and in the peak hours of around 12.5%. Presently, out of 1,24,000 MW of the electricity generation, 55% comes from Coal, 26% comes from hydroelectric generation, 10% from natural gases, 5% from renewables and just 3% from the nuclear sources. India is now running short of its supply of coal and the domestic oil reservoirs. The oil imported by India for power generation is expensive and thus inefficient to meet the cause. India has Uranium to support 10000MW of energy generation using pressurized heavy water reactors. Even this would be possible if the natural resources in states of Meghalaya and Andhra Pradesh are used. In Meghalaya, there are tribes and the local people who are against the mining activities in the area which has made the tapping of these mines a political dilemma.
Anil Kakodkar, the Chairman of Atomic Energy Commission of India, stated that 35% of the electricity generation will come from nuclear sources by 2050 if the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal comes under way. As a result of this, India may do a business of whopping $100 Billion with foreign companies such as Electricite de France, Areva SA, Hitachi, Russia’s Rosatom, General Electricals and Westinghouse Electric Co. With the deal, there could be entry of foreign firms to build the Atomic Power Stations and also finance the nuclear sector. In this way India would be in a position to use the expertise of the international players to develop the infrastructure for energy generation. With a few years into it, the country shall be able to help the other nations in respect of technology and power supply. By 2030, India would be able to produce surplus energy which could be supplied to foreign countries to generate profitable business. India already has one of the most efficient processes of extraction of heavy waters and of the development of Thorium-based power stations. Here, after the Nuclear Deal, if India joins hands with International Thermonuclear Energy Reactor (ITER) Project, it would be able to make billions of dollars every year, which in turn, would help its economy.
Boats in the harbor are safe, but that is not what they are meant for. India has been like a boat almost always in the storm. From the primitive times, India has seen some of the toughest wars, gargantuan invasions, fatal epidemics, terrible natural calamities and soul-shaking treacheries. But almost always India has emerged as a winner in these tests. This shows the strength of our nation. Alexander Tyler, a Scottish historian stated that the life of a country can be divided into three stages: first, when a country tries to climb the ladder of success, second, when the country reaches the acme, and third, when it comes down the hill. India has long been in its foetal stage. The time is just about right to reach the acme, to become ‘a Superpower’. But to accomplish this, the Indian Government may have to face stiff opposition from different political parties, obviating bureaucrats and even the common Indian who is unaware of the Government’s foresight. But do we not vote to empower the government to take decisions for the larger good of the society and not to entertain individual aspirations, especially when they are negative?
It has been rightly said ‘those who can do, they do, those who cannot, they oppose’. The ongoing ‘nuclear debate’ in India has become the biggest talk of every town. There are political parties, mainly, like the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and the Communist Party of India (CPI(M)) who have opposed the deal. One of the main reasons of the opposition is that these parties fear that India would loose its nuclear integrity and sovereignty. This outlook is wrong. Firstly, it is important to note that the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) was the first political party to re-initiate its talks with the United States for its nuclear energy needs. Secondly, they now have baseless arguments to oppose the deal. The BJP says that the United States would urge India to either sign Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before Pakistan does or at least put a full stop to its military use of the nuclear power. Here, there is a need to read between the lines. The General Elections are round the corner and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) cannot take the risk of supporting the Congress Party in any cause. Having said that, the BJP claims that Pakistan, which has not yet signed the NPT, and China can carry out their nuclear tests in the future and India would only be a toy in the hands of the United States. Such obnoxious arguments prove only the negative insight the opposition has. Pakistan is already under the scanner after the September 11 incident. The world already knows about ‘the terrorist connections’ of the country and that it breeds Islamic-Extremists and Islamic-Fanatics. The political conditions of Pakistan are as unstable as ever with their own democratic system being battered left, right and center. In such an environment, nuclear tests by Pakistan could prove suicidal for them. China, on the other hand, has always been a nation which plays a ‘safe’ game. It would not attack a nation until its own national security is in danger. Moreover, China is too busy with its own internal disturbances regarding the ‘Tibet’ issues.
The Left Parties, it seems, are out to prove that since they are the ‘left’, they cannot do what is ‘right’. They seem to oppose the nuclear deal with the United States, even at the cost of national progress and growth. When Amartya Sen, the famous Indian economist and philosopher, sat down writing his book ‘the Argumentative Indian’, he probably missed out on mentioning the unproductive and obviating arguments of the leaders of the Left Parties of India. Had he done that, it would have added at least another thousand pages to the book. The Communist Party of India (CPI(M)) demands that India should be an independent Nuclear Power. But where will India get the nuclear fuel and technology from? As mentioned earlier, India has limited deposits of Uranium, just enough to survive at the present. The 123 Agreement is the agreement between the United States and any other nation which wants to enter into the nuclear deal with the country. The signing of the 123 Agreement will not curb India to conduct its nuclear tests but help it in procuring Uranium from the suppliers all over the world. With an electricity deficit of 8% to 12.5% already, India does not have much time to spend in searching for any unproductive energy source.
The United States has clearly stated that it is not putting a ban on India’s nuclear testing through the 123 Agreement. The United States would only supply ‘minds & materials’ to quench the civil needs of the country like power generation for electricity, etc. Under the terms of the deal, if India conducts a nuclear test, the US will have to consider if India was urged to conduct a test following similar tests by threatening neighboring countries. Where a nuclear test is conducted for self-defense, the United States cannot penalize India over it. Taking a neutral stance, if a nuclear test is conducted by any country irrespective of any deal entered into with the United States, it will be opposed by the world at large. Hence, the 123 Agreement does not put a full stop to India’s desire to become a Nuclear Independent State. This proves the objection of the Communist Party of India (CPI(M)) to be null and void. So, the BJP fears that the Congress in India may relish the fruit of the tree that was initially sown by the former and would give the latter an edge to win the coming elections. The CPI(M), no more a part of the UPA Government, fears the Congress would gather all the applause and the Left Party would not be able to even chew the ‘left’-overs.
Amidst the prevailing political jugglery in India, one piece of fact stands tall. And the fact is that it is a win-win situation both for India and the United States of America if the Indo-US Nuclear Deal is carried out. If the purpose of the deal is studied in depth, it shows that India has scarcity of power generating resources and wants to enter the deal mainly to use nuclear energy for electricity generation. Two decades down the line when India starts producing surplus energy using nuclear technology, it will have three major outcomes. Firstly, there will be no power cuts in the country due to surplus energy reserves. Secondly, there will be electricity in every town and village in India which is not possible otherwise presently. Thirdly, the cost of electricity generation will come down as nuclear power generation technology is renewable and environment friendly.
When there will be uninterrupted electricity supply, the households and the industry would not require generators for fulfilling their power needs. This means that all the fuel that goes into the generators would be saved. In other words, the demand for diesel in India would come down. As a consequence, lesser amount of diesel would be imported by India and this shall improve the balance of payments situation of the country. Eventually, the household would not buy the generators and the inverters and save money. When this saved money is pooled back into the economy in the form of investment, it will contribute to the growth of the economy. Uninterrupted electricity supply would also mean lesser time lags and shorter gestation period. A villager usually does not buy a generator because it is expensive and it requires fuel. Fuel is not a ubiquitous commodity in the village area. In these circumstances, if there are long power cuts, it would affect the cottage industry on one hand and irrigation of the farms on the other. Hence, no power cut, which is possible if the Deal is carried out, would increase the all over productivity of the nation.
When there is surplus of electricity, it will again have two outcomes. Firstly, electricity will become cheaper in India. Secondly, India can supply the surplus to other countries and earn profits. The electricity rates are relatively high currently as there is a deficit of energy supply. With cheaper and abundant energy, the cost of electricity to the manufacturer would come down. A cascading effect of this would be that the cost of overall production of the goods will come down. Lower cost of production will result in cheaper products which in turn will bring down the inflation rate in India. With huge population, cheap labour, cheap electricity and ultimately cheap manufacturing costs, India could become a global manufacturing hub. Imagindia Institute, an Indian Lobby Group, has estimated that by the year 2030, the direct and indirect benefits reaped by India after the deal could sum up to $500 billion. Also, when there would be electricity available in every nook and corner, it would be easier to carry out the construction of dams, canals, bridges, roads and other infrastructural developments which usually require very long gestations due to the lack of power supply in India. The areas that would gain the most due to these developments would be the North-Eastern States of India and also the rural India where the spread of electricity can be compared with the chrysopoeia of ‘the Midas touch’ or ‘the Philosopher’s Stone’.
Measuring the scenario on a political scale, it can be said that the position of India on the world map would become much stronger after the nuclear deal. The fact that India would have a better understanding of the nuclear technology would haunt many a nations and would urge them to look at India with a sense of awe and respect. The countries doing business with India would see it as a technologically equipped nation and thus would have greater trust in its products and services. India has long been a member of the United Nations (UN) but never really had a say in it. A ‘nuclear’ stamp would give India an opportunity to present its proposals and plans and see them being carried out. India is the only nation which has not yet signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty and would still use nuclear fuel supplied by the US. This exception is a mark of reverence to the country and faith in its responsible actions. The use of nuclear technology is also a chance for India to prove that it is capable of utilizing the nuclear resources efficiently for the civil purposes and wipe off the memories of the meaningless nuclear tests of 1974 and the Pokhran Nuclear Tests of 1998. This shall also redefine India’s position in Asia, specially where there is tough competition of India’s domestic industry with that of China. Besides these advantages, there are many more benefits to India through this deal which would only pay dividends in the long run.
The United States is currently trapped in an economic quagmire. The Sub-prime Crisis, the oil crisis of 2008, the fall of the Big Five of the Wall Street and the present financial doldrums have weakened the nation which used to boast itself of being the Superpower of the world. The economy of the US is undergoing a recessional phase and it is estimated that it would take ages for the United States to recover from the same. Here it can be said that the nuclear deal would give a huge economic support to the US. For the nuclear power generation, India would set up more than 10 power stations in the next two decades. Each of these power stations would cost India about $4 billion. So, India will import ‘minds and materials’ for at least half of the power stations which will generate a business of around $20 billion for the United States. This is not all. Better business relationship with India would also foster the US aerospace industry. India has already placed an order for $8 billion worth commercial airplanes with Boeing of Seattle and an order for 125 military planes is also in the pipeline. Thus, the nuclear deal with India would give huge business opportunities to the US and a chance to stabilize its economy.
The United States did not wish to pass on the nuclear technology to India, even for the civil purposes, after the exploding of a nuclear bomb in 1974 by the latter. India did suffer some adverse repercussions of this policy of the US but slowly and steadily became economically strong. If current deal makes India economically stronger, other nations would also like to enter into the 123 Agreement with the United States. This, again, would earn huge sums for the US. Due to improved business relations with India, the United States can even take the assistance of the military forces of India in its international projects. The two countries will also see a greater exchange of the product and service outsourcing between themselves.
The wheel of time never ceases and time alone is unchanging. Such is the law of life. With time, much water has flown under the bridge and now is the time for India to touch the stars. Today, we are making our own Chandrayaan, we have one of the world’s biggest skilled manpower, our culture and religions are amongst the oldest, our levels of tolerance and will to succeed are sky-high, we are doing quite well in space-navigation, scientific researches and even Olympics! What is needed now is a binding force to amalgamate all the efforts that India has been making to reach the zenith. Beyond the labyrinths of time, is an incessant effort of more than a billion people belonging to different religions, regions, castes, colours, thought-patterns and origins giving their days, nights, sweat and blood to see their India free from poverty, illiteracy and malice. The time has now come to bring the change and the Indo-Us Nuclear Deal is capable of bringing the desired metamorphosis. The nuclear technology would change the status of our country from a ‘developing’ nation to that of ‘developed’. For the United States, the deal represents an opportunity to do some healthy business after suffering huge financial losses recently. For India, the nuclear deal represents not just a ray of light but the light itself.
